Investment report – April 2017
Portfolio April 2017 Investment Returns have been good. This article examines why this has been, where we currently are, and the considerations for the coming 8 months when considering investing in portfolios or mixed assets.
With so much uncertainty over the last year, and with our own position of caution, then now is the time to speak out and say our investment returns for all client portfolios have had excellent April 2017 Investment Returns when taking into account risk strategy.
However, we never claim to be anything other than what we are. The fact is that the markets as a whole have done extremely well over the last 8 months, although they are now stagnating. As a result two things have happened:
1. Everyone’s investment performance has been good.
2. Volatility of all portfolios has increased.
What is that old adage – past performance should not be used as a guide to future performance! This is a key point now for the remainder of 2017 and into 2018. The world has priced in the anticipated growth that has come about in the EU and the USA. With QE in the EU and Donal Trump in the USA, one can see the expectations from investors, but whether they are correct or not; well, that is crystal ball territory.
The position we find ourselves in is one that we have found ourselves in before. We are in a bull market with signs of overheating. In effect the bull market is up over 100% since 2011 and although we have had one or two poorer years with low or slightly negative performance over 12 month periods, the truth is that the last year has been exceptionally good.
The increase in volatility is a warning sign though. We have had to review our portfolios because of this increase in volatility, and we have also spent some time looking at the geographical sectors which we have incorporated in April 2017 Investment Returns review.
April 2017 Investment Returns – the conclusion
We still have positive thoughts about how things can work out this year, but we are very conscious of the fact that one single matter could lead to a market correction. Interest rates are critical due to the debt bubble and fragility of EU banks.
We are not in a normal interest rate cycle – maybe an understatement! – let us be clear, interest rates have to go up, especially as inflation rises, and yet an interest rate rise will damage the fragile recovery the world is seeing. Brexit may be a catalyst for the UK which may actually, in the long term, position it well from this single perspective (that is not a general comment on Brexit outcomes though!); as other countries continue to build an uncontrollable debt bubble with asset inflation and low saving rates, they too will face the inevitable challenge of raising interest rates.
Therefore, we continue to protect our clients investments as best we can, whilst not missing out on the upside currently available. We look forward with anticipation but at the same time knowing that the client returns from the last 8 months will not be replicated in the next 12 months.
We offer a forensic review of the 10 reasons to use a QROPS for those that would like revisit the QROPS and investments they hold. Increased investment performance and lower charges may make a significant difference at retirement.
Some offshore salesmen promoting QROPS as an investment solution live in a parallel universe where they claim to make world stock markets behave differently in QROPS than they do if the same funds are used from and within UK pension funds. Think and behave logically, if promises of bigger returns can only be achieved by moving to a QROPS then why hasn’t the entire UK pension industry moved offshore? It hasn’t!
End – April 2017 Investment Returns
The views expressed in this article are not to be construed as personal advice. You should contact a qualified and ideally regulated adviser in order to obtain up to date personal advice with regard to your own personal circumstances. If you do not then you are acting under your own authority and deemed “execution only”. The author does not except any liability for people acting without personalised advice, who base a decision on views expressed in this generic article. Where this article is dated then it is based on legislation as of the date. Legislation changes but articles are rarely updated, although sometimes a new article is written; so, please check for later articles or changes in legislation on official government websites, as this article should not be relied on in isolation.
This article was published on 23rd May 2017
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